Oscar Recap

Clocking in at just under three and a half hours, from Hugh Jackman's opening monologue to the Best Picture award, the Oscars failed to surprise. But is that a bad thing? Most certainly not. Except for some tiniest of tiny upsets, the winners were as they should have been. How was the actual show, itself? Let's just say that Jackman was an entertaining host, and Hollywood clearly cares more about their actors than anyone else.

Grabbing numerous prizes was the favored Slumdog Millionaire, which was, quite simply, the best film out of the nominees. It took home 8 awards, including Best Picture, Best Director (Danny Boyle), Adapted Screenplay (Simon Beaufoy), Score, Song, Editing, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography. The love was not shared this year, with Slumdog possessing what seemed like a monopoly on all categories, ranging from the 'Big Eight' to the 'Techies.'

Deservedly, Sean Penn won Best Actor for his portrayal of Harvey Milk in MILK (which also won Original Screenplay). Kate Winslet took home her first Oscar--finally--for her performance in The Reader. The Reader, while an interesting movie, was not worthy of its Best Picture nomination. Kate Winslet winning was not unexpected and is nothing to dismiss, but she should have been nominated for Revolutionary Road, which was a superior film in every aspect.

Michael Shannon was nominated for a supporting role in Revolutionary Road, but the winner was Heath Ledger for his Joker. I think it's a safe assumption that he got no less than 90% of the votes--but we will never know for sure. Some may have been sympathy votes because he has passed, but his performance was the best of the bunch. His Oscar will be kept by Michelle Williams, his ex-fiance, until his daughter is 18. At that time, it will go to her. The Dark Knight ended up taking home two Oscars: Ledger's, and Sound Editing.

Penelope Cruz gained an Oscar for her role in 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona,' which received only a sliver of love from the Academy (not even a Screenplay nod for Woody Allen). Yet, the Academy never fails to embrace beautiful, exotic women. Cruz had this one in the bag from day one.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, lackluster as it was, still managed three Oscars in tech categories. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie both went home empty-handed, but I'm sure Brad Pitt's time will come soon. If not, as long as he lives until his 80s, he'll at least get an honorary Oscar.

WALL-E, while nominated for six Oscars and one of the year's best, was stuck with a win in only the Best Animated Feature category. It seems like Pixar can't get a break outside of that mold, no matter how good their films are.

As for myself, I got 21 out of 24 predictions correct, missing only Animated Short, Documentary Short, and Foreign Language film. We can all learn something from this: I should plug my predictions into contests instead of just posting them on my blog, and you should copy my predictions next year.

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Quick Oscar Recap

So I got 21/24 predictions right for the Oscars, which is 87.5%, which is amazing. Most people average about 14-16.

The only ones I missed were Animated Short, Documentary Short, and Foreign Film. Mostly because I hadn't seen any of them (except Presto), and Foreign Language film is always lame and goes with something out of the blue.

Hugh Jackman was a good host.

I wish I posted my predictions in some contests. I probably would have won some stuff. I think the one I did, it was an old prediction chart and it changed since then. Damnit.

Hopefully next year I do this well! If you're bored, check out my live blog below this, or the pre-show blabber below that. With sexy pics.

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Bump: Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are tomorrow, and as such, I'm re-posting my predictions. The full list is here, with some explanations. This year I'm playing it fairly safe. Next year I may play a bit riskier, but I think this will be a Year of the General Consensus.

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Kate Winslet
Sup. Actor: Heath Ledger
Sup. Actress: Penelope Cruz
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: Benjamin Button
Original Score: A.R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire
Animated Feature: WALL-E
Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire
Costumes: The Duchess
Doc. Feature: Man on Wire
Visual Effects: Benjamin Button
Makeup: Benjamin Button
Live Short: Spielzeugland
Doc. Short: The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
Animated Short: Presto

Last year I got 15 out of 24, which is embarrassing. This year I'll be surprised if I hit less than 18. Very surprised. We'll see!

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2009 Oscar Predictions

This was a decent year for movies. I'm still bitter about the overall nominees, but there are some gems among them. I've never really hit a grand slam with Oscar predictions because I let my personal judgment overrule what I know is the front runner, but... oh well.

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire, because not only is it the best film from the nominees, but it has won every single award up until this point.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle, for the same reasons: Not only was the film great, but he has won all of the major awards so far.

Best Actor:
Sean Penn for Milk, for a couple reasons. First, Milk won't win anything else besides Screenplay, and they will want to award it elsewhere. Also, he won the SAG, which has been fairly consistent in the last few years. Before that, when an actor lost the SAG and won the Oscar, it was to a widely seen performance that was over-the-top (Johnny Depp in 'Pirates,' for example). Here, the winner should be Mickey Rourke, but I need to accept that it won't happen. The only thing going against Sean Penn is that he won a leading Oscar in 2003, but I think that's long enough to not overpower the other factors.

Best Actress:
Kate Winslet for The Reader. She should have been nominated for Revolutionary Road, which was a better film in every single aspect, but if you're a woman in Hollywood and you strip, they kind of have to nominate you... and usually give you the Oscar (Halle Berry, for example). Kate is overdue for a win and in a film dealing with the Holocaust that is a Best Picture nominee. She will win.

Best Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight. Is anyone going to argue this one?

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. This is undoubtedly the hardest of the 'big' categories to predict. If I had my way, Amy Adams would win for Doubt, but if anyone wins it will be Viola Davis for a overpraised performance. More than likely, though, the votes will split. Marisa Tomei should win, but she already has an Oscar (granted, from a long time ago), so I'm going to stick with Penelope. She was nominated in 2007, clearly the most loved part about Volver, but no one was beating Helen Mirren. But here we have a beautiful, non-previous winner in a Woody Allen film, in a strong performance, who isn't white. Oscar loves voting for those kinds of people. She gets my vote.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire, because that is by far the best script of the year.

Best Original Screenplay:
Dustin Lance Black for Milk. It won the WGA and is a strong script, so it will win. However, I think WALL-E and In Bruges were both better scripts (and films), but we won't get into that here.

More after the cut....

Best Editing:
Slumdog Millionaire, because, again, it deserves it. But the film also has 'flashy' editing, which voters like, and the film is superbly paced. I may change this a week or so from now after the ACE Eddies, but probably not.

Best Cinematography:
Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire. This is a tough call, honestly, but this year I'm planning on a strong sweep from Slumdog.

Best Art Direction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, because it makes sense to me.

Best Original Score:
A. R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire. Thomas Newman should win for WALL-E, but Slumdog is so loved it will take it. Well, and it's a great score. I'm actually listening to it right now. I'm seriously second-guessing my choice here, so if I'm wrong don't be surprised.

Best Original Song:
Jai Ho, but I'm beating myself up about this one. Part of me thinks Slumdog will split its own votes, plus Down to Earth is a great song. However, Jai Ho has a great dance number to it at the end of Slumdog that people are bound to have seen, so I'm going with it. Why not?

Best Animated Feature:
WALL-E, done.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Waltz with Bashir

Best Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight

Best Sound Mixing:
Slumdog Millionaire, though WALL-E would be nice.

Best Costume Design:
The Duchess

Best Documentary Feature:
Man on Wire, which was good but I didn't like it too much.

Best Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Makeup:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, though don't be shocked if Hellboy 2 upsets.

Best Live Action Short:
Spielzeugland (shot in the dark)

Best Documentary Short:
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306 (shot in the dark)

Best Animated Short:
Presto

And there they are!

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If I Could Pick the Oscar Nominees....

I hate predicting Oscar nominees. That means I have to get five things right in each category. What a joke. And I hate when people list their five, and then have an 'alternate' and a 'potential upset' and a 'dark horse.' What the hell is that? Picking eight choices? Such a cop out.

Now, note, I still have a couple movies to see from this year. I have, however, seen most of the notable films, so this is a close-to-complete list. Note: These will all be in order of preference.

Also, note, that these are highly chimerical and unlikely at best.

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Revolutionary Road
The Wrestler
In Bruges

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn, Milk
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Best Actress
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
I have not seen enough great actress performances, so Kate Winslet wins by default

Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt (bandwagon pick)

Supporting Actress
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristin Barcelona
Frieda Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Original Screenplay
Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York
Robert D. Siegal, The Wrestler
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby, Art Marcum, Matt Holloway, Iron Man
...anything besides The Dark Knight

Best Editing
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WALL-E
Revolutionary Road
Frost/Nixon

Best Cinematography
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road
Harry Savides, Milk
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

Not gonna bother with the rest, other than WALL-E for animated feature, obviously.

We'll see tomorrow!

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About 75 minutes until the Oscars start. Here is a quick list of my predictions, which will either be amazing or awful. I'm leaving the explanations at the door -- so I know some of these are long shots but hey, I stand by my choices.

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody - Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Best Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Best Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Best Costume Design: La Vie en Rose
Best Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum (note: if NCfOM wins this it wins Best Picture easily)
Original Song: Falling Slowly
Original Score: Atonement
Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
Sound: No Country for Old Men
Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean (yes I'm picking against the general consensus of Transformers)
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Animated Short: Peter and the Wolf
Live Action Short: The Tonto Woman
Documentary Short: La Corona
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight

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If this happens, I will be a happy man.

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It is now just under two weeks until the Oscars, and the only really significant award left is the ACE Eddie Awards. Editing is pretty important, but nonetheless, here are some predictions.

It is very hard to separate what I think is statistically the best bet from what I want to win. Some people make up lists with their 'prediction,' their 'alternate,' and their 'spoiler.' What in the hell kind of list is that? Even if you shot in the dark you still have a 3/5 chance. If I had three guesses per category I'd never be wrong.

As of right now I'm going to do a small list of the 'smart money' bet, and the 'if I had a vote.' That's two, yes, but before the ceremony I will man up and make one official prediction for every category, even small stuff like Live Action Short. But for now -- opinions.

Best Picture

All smart money here would go on No Country for Old Men. It has won the DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, and countless critics' awards. It has the second highest box office by a decent margin (about $10 million ahead of Michael Clayton, though about $60 behind Juno). It has 8 nominations, tied for the most. Honestly, anything else winning here would be an 'upset.' I enjoyed four of the five nominees, but NCfOM should be the winner.

Best Director

Joel and Ethan Coen for NCfOM should win here. They are the smart bet, since they won the DGA, and that almost never counteracts the Oscar. It is probably the best precursor out of them all. However, I wouldn't mind seeing Julian Schnabel win for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis wins. There is no close second and no spoiler here. Which is kind of interesting since there were some other great performances this year.

Best Actress

This gets interesting, and one of the toughest to call. Julie Christie is the favorite, with so many awards so far this season; however, Marion Cotillard has my vote. I liked Away From Her, but La Vie en Rose was a better film, and I think Cotillard deserves this Oscar. Oddly enough, though, they may split the vote and make way for Ellen Page, who I'm not predicting, but her character is certainly lovable and she is in a Best Picture nominee that had huge box office success. There could be a spoiler here.

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem wins, and again, anyone else winning would be both a crime and extreme upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Almost more interesting than Lead Actress. There almost is no favorite here, with each nominee having pros and cons. Ruby Dee won the SAG, but has almost no screen time, her performance was mediocre, and is not in a Best Picture nominee -- but she gets the old lady sympathy vote. Cate Blanchett would win here for sure, just like in Notes on a Scandal, if she hadn't won for The Aviator a few years ago. However, she is my favorite, and prediction. Tilda Swinton has lots of word of mouth, and may be Michael Clayton's consolation prize. I dislike all things Michael Clayton, but wouldn't mind too much if she took it. Amy Ryan had early buzz but it has faded, and Saoirse Ronan, while delivering a fantastic performance, will be neglected because she is so young. Shame.

Best Original Screenplay

Say what you want, but the screenplay for Juno is well constructed. It has snappy dialogue, yes, but also the plot mechanics and flow of scenes is top notch, and it deserves to win. And it is the smart bet. Though, I'd love to see Ratatouille take this, because simply a Best Animated Feature Oscar is not enough for this movie.

Best Adapted Screenplay

This is where Joel and Ethan Coen may trip up, though they are still the frontrunners, with a WGA and Golden Globe win, among other things. Paul Thomas Anderson may spoil here for There Will Be Blood, but my personal choice is Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The Coens already have a writing Oscar, but then again, Harwood has one as well (The Pianist). I think Diving Bell is brilliant, though, and should be awarded either here or in Directing.

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Those are the 'Big Eight' in a nutshell. Some of the more exciting races will be editing and cinematography, but I will write about those later.

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Sad to say the only category I picked 5 for 5 on (without alternates) was Supporting Actress. Shame. Either way, here are some opinions on Oscar nominations.

Excited for/surprised/etc:
Atonement for Best Picture (hoped for/didn't think would happen)
Viggo for Best Actor (great call on nom/didn't think would happen)
Brad Bird for Ratatouille screenplay (I forgot about this for some reason -- great nom)
Sarah Polley for adapted screenplay (forgot about this one too -- I fail)
Lack of Simpsons Movie in animated feature
Saoirse Ronan nomination

Sad/disappointed in/etc:
Michael Clayton getting nominated for, well, anything (Best Pic/director included)
Diving Bell and the Butterfly missing Best Picture (wtf is this?)
Lack of any Zodiac representation

You know what the funny thing is, that while I missed a few key predictions, I'm actually happy overall. For example, I forgot Ratatouille in screenplay, but it's totally deserving. Also, I was predicting Angelina Jolie because of buzz, but she definitely shouldn't have gotten nominated.

Now, I have a formula...

I will not reveal the formula yet, but STATISTICALLY SPEAKING the winner for best picture should be... No Country For Old Men.

The only potential problem with this is the excessive violence, but last year 'The Departed' won. But then again, would two violent movies win in a row? Who knows. But, for right now the statistical favorite, as well as my favorite, is NCFOM. Calling that shit now.

But.... to be honest, for history sake, I would be happy with 4 of the 5 nominees. There Will Be Blood was a very good movie, Juno is extremely enjoyable, Atonement was heartbreakingly beautiful, and No Country For Old Men is perfect. The only winner I would be pissed about it Michael Clayton. What does this mean? Great year for movies.

Only thing that could make this year more perfect would be Julian Schnabel winning best director and Marion Cotillard winning Best Actress. Two uphill battles, but they both have globe wins, so we will see. Yay for cheering for the non-frontrunners!

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I don't normally do this, but I am bored. Here are my predictions for Oscar nominations, which come out Tuesday. Well, these will also reflect movies I 'hope' have a chance, so... yeah.

* indicates a lock for a nomination

Best Picture
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*
Juno
No Country For Old Men*
There Will Be Blood*
alternate: Michael Clayton

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson*
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen*
Sean Penn
Julian Schnabel*
Joe Wright
alternate: Sidney Lumet (please please please)

Best Lead Actor
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)*
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)*
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
alternate: James McAvoy (Atonement)

Best Lead Actress
Julie Christie (Away From Her)*
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)*
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)*
alternate: Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James...)*
Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men)*
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
Max Von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
alternate: Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)*
Kelly MacDonald (No Country For Old Men)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)*
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
alternate: Ruby Dee (American Gangster)

Original Screenplay
Brad Bird (Ratatouille)*
Diablo Cody (Juno)*
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)*
Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)
alternate: Kelly Masterson (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

Adapted Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)*
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men)*
Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)*
James Vanderbilt (Zodiac)
alternate: Sean Penn (Into the Wild)

Cinematography
Roger Deakins (The Assassination of Jesse James...)
Roger Deakins (No Country For Old Men)
Robert Elswit (There Will Be Blood)*
Janusz Kaminsk (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)*
Seamus McGarvey (Atonement)
alternate: Eric Gautier (Into the Wild)

Editing
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - aka Roderick Jaynes (No Country For Old Men)*
John Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Tatiana S. Riegel and Dylan Tichenor (There Will Be Blood)*
Christopher Rouse (The Bourne Ultimatum)
Paul Tothill (Atonement)
alternate: Jay Cassidy (Into the Wild)

All right, so these are a combination of my hopefuls and what I think will happen. If my main five get nominated for all the categories I'd be very happy -- but then again, I would have a harder time choosing winners. Oh well, come Tuesday we'll see how close I was for the big categories.

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Because I am A) awesome, and B) like to brag, I'm going to say "I totally called that shit" back in October.

But seriously, is it sad that I'm more excited for 'Pan's Labyrinth' than for my 21st birthday? 99% regular, 100% CotC (with an 8.7 average rating) on RT, a 97 on Metacritic, and actually winning some awards, even a few best pictures from various critic circles. I can't wait for next Friday.

Too bad it opened so close towards the end of the year that it's unlikely to get many Oscar nods, but who knows...

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