Sad to say the only category I picked 5 for 5 on (without alternates) was Supporting Actress. Shame. Either way, here are some opinions on Oscar nominations.

Excited for/surprised/etc:
Atonement for Best Picture (hoped for/didn't think would happen)
Viggo for Best Actor (great call on nom/didn't think would happen)
Brad Bird for Ratatouille screenplay (I forgot about this for some reason -- great nom)
Sarah Polley for adapted screenplay (forgot about this one too -- I fail)
Lack of Simpsons Movie in animated feature
Saoirse Ronan nomination

Sad/disappointed in/etc:
Michael Clayton getting nominated for, well, anything (Best Pic/director included)
Diving Bell and the Butterfly missing Best Picture (wtf is this?)
Lack of any Zodiac representation

You know what the funny thing is, that while I missed a few key predictions, I'm actually happy overall. For example, I forgot Ratatouille in screenplay, but it's totally deserving. Also, I was predicting Angelina Jolie because of buzz, but she definitely shouldn't have gotten nominated.

Now, I have a formula...

I will not reveal the formula yet, but STATISTICALLY SPEAKING the winner for best picture should be... No Country For Old Men.

The only potential problem with this is the excessive violence, but last year 'The Departed' won. But then again, would two violent movies win in a row? Who knows. But, for right now the statistical favorite, as well as my favorite, is NCFOM. Calling that shit now.

But.... to be honest, for history sake, I would be happy with 4 of the 5 nominees. There Will Be Blood was a very good movie, Juno is extremely enjoyable, Atonement was heartbreakingly beautiful, and No Country For Old Men is perfect. The only winner I would be pissed about it Michael Clayton. What does this mean? Great year for movies.

Only thing that could make this year more perfect would be Julian Schnabel winning best director and Marion Cotillard winning Best Actress. Two uphill battles, but they both have globe wins, so we will see. Yay for cheering for the non-frontrunners!

Continue reading...

I don't normally do this, but I am bored. Here are my predictions for Oscar nominations, which come out Tuesday. Well, these will also reflect movies I 'hope' have a chance, so... yeah.

* indicates a lock for a nomination

Best Picture
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*
Juno
No Country For Old Men*
There Will Be Blood*
alternate: Michael Clayton

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson*
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen*
Sean Penn
Julian Schnabel*
Joe Wright
alternate: Sidney Lumet (please please please)

Best Lead Actor
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)*
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)*
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
alternate: James McAvoy (Atonement)

Best Lead Actress
Julie Christie (Away From Her)*
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)*
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)*
alternate: Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James...)*
Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men)*
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
Max Von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
alternate: Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)*
Kelly MacDonald (No Country For Old Men)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)*
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
alternate: Ruby Dee (American Gangster)

Original Screenplay
Brad Bird (Ratatouille)*
Diablo Cody (Juno)*
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)*
Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)
alternate: Kelly Masterson (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

Adapted Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)*
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men)*
Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)*
James Vanderbilt (Zodiac)
alternate: Sean Penn (Into the Wild)

Cinematography
Roger Deakins (The Assassination of Jesse James...)
Roger Deakins (No Country For Old Men)
Robert Elswit (There Will Be Blood)*
Janusz Kaminsk (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)*
Seamus McGarvey (Atonement)
alternate: Eric Gautier (Into the Wild)

Editing
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - aka Roderick Jaynes (No Country For Old Men)*
John Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Tatiana S. Riegel and Dylan Tichenor (There Will Be Blood)*
Christopher Rouse (The Bourne Ultimatum)
Paul Tothill (Atonement)
alternate: Jay Cassidy (Into the Wild)

All right, so these are a combination of my hopefuls and what I think will happen. If my main five get nominated for all the categories I'd be very happy -- but then again, I would have a harder time choosing winners. Oh well, come Tuesday we'll see how close I was for the big categories.

Continue reading...