MILK Acceptance Speeches

YouTube will take this video down soon, but if you missed it last night, here is Sean Penn's acceptance speech.



I'm posting this, as opposed to some other great speeches, because some people have been saying "Why even bring up the gay issues?" Well, it's not like Andrew Stanton won for WALL-E and is preaching about equal rights. Sean Penn and Dustin Lance Black won for a film about equal rights, so it would almost seem inappropriate if they didn't mention them. There is clearly support for the winners, the film, and Harvey Milk himself, and there's nothing wrong with them acknowledging the message of their film.

I bring this up because Sean Penn said something so great in his speech (shocking as that may be):

"...for those who saw the signs of hatred as our cars drove in tonight; and I think that it is a good time for those who voted for the ban against gay marriage to sit and reflect and anticipate their great shame and the shame in their grandchildren's eyes if they continue that way of support. We've got to have equal rights for everyone."

Poor grammar on Penn's account aside, that is a great point. And it's true. We do have to have equal rights for everyone.

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Oscar Recap

Clocking in at just under three and a half hours, from Hugh Jackman's opening monologue to the Best Picture award, the Oscars failed to surprise. But is that a bad thing? Most certainly not. Except for some tiniest of tiny upsets, the winners were as they should have been. How was the actual show, itself? Let's just say that Jackman was an entertaining host, and Hollywood clearly cares more about their actors than anyone else.

Grabbing numerous prizes was the favored Slumdog Millionaire, which was, quite simply, the best film out of the nominees. It took home 8 awards, including Best Picture, Best Director (Danny Boyle), Adapted Screenplay (Simon Beaufoy), Score, Song, Editing, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography. The love was not shared this year, with Slumdog possessing what seemed like a monopoly on all categories, ranging from the 'Big Eight' to the 'Techies.'

Deservedly, Sean Penn won Best Actor for his portrayal of Harvey Milk in MILK (which also won Original Screenplay). Kate Winslet took home her first Oscar--finally--for her performance in The Reader. The Reader, while an interesting movie, was not worthy of its Best Picture nomination. Kate Winslet winning was not unexpected and is nothing to dismiss, but she should have been nominated for Revolutionary Road, which was a superior film in every aspect.

Michael Shannon was nominated for a supporting role in Revolutionary Road, but the winner was Heath Ledger for his Joker. I think it's a safe assumption that he got no less than 90% of the votes--but we will never know for sure. Some may have been sympathy votes because he has passed, but his performance was the best of the bunch. His Oscar will be kept by Michelle Williams, his ex-fiance, until his daughter is 18. At that time, it will go to her. The Dark Knight ended up taking home two Oscars: Ledger's, and Sound Editing.

Penelope Cruz gained an Oscar for her role in 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona,' which received only a sliver of love from the Academy (not even a Screenplay nod for Woody Allen). Yet, the Academy never fails to embrace beautiful, exotic women. Cruz had this one in the bag from day one.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, lackluster as it was, still managed three Oscars in tech categories. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie both went home empty-handed, but I'm sure Brad Pitt's time will come soon. If not, as long as he lives until his 80s, he'll at least get an honorary Oscar.

WALL-E, while nominated for six Oscars and one of the year's best, was stuck with a win in only the Best Animated Feature category. It seems like Pixar can't get a break outside of that mold, no matter how good their films are.

As for myself, I got 21 out of 24 predictions correct, missing only Animated Short, Documentary Short, and Foreign Language film. We can all learn something from this: I should plug my predictions into contests instead of just posting them on my blog, and you should copy my predictions next year.

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Quick Oscar Recap

So I got 21/24 predictions right for the Oscars, which is 87.5%, which is amazing. Most people average about 14-16.

The only ones I missed were Animated Short, Documentary Short, and Foreign Film. Mostly because I hadn't seen any of them (except Presto), and Foreign Language film is always lame and goes with something out of the blue.

Hugh Jackman was a good host.

I wish I posted my predictions in some contests. I probably would have won some stuff. I think the one I did, it was an old prediction chart and it changed since then. Damnit.

Hopefully next year I do this well! If you're bored, check out my live blog below this, or the pre-show blabber below that. With sexy pics.

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Oscar Live-blog (Sort Of)

When the shows starts, during commercials, I may or may not come back to edit. Does anyone actually read live blogs after-the-fact? Note: All times will be according to EST.

8:30 Aaaaaaaand, we're off!

8:35 Hugh Jackman's writers are pretty solid this year.

8:38 Opening dance number with all of the nominees: Pretty funny, too. Especially since it makes fun of no one seeing The Reader.

8:42 Love Meryl Streep, and also, not a bad montage of acceptance speeches.

8:48 I liked these intros at first, and they're interesting, but taking WAY too long (Sup. Actress).

8:49 YAY, Penelope Cruz! Great win, and I'm 1/1.

8:51 Great speech. No one is going to top Penelope. Love her. Especially since she thanked Woody Allen.

8:55 Tina Fey presenting the writing Oscar? Hot.

8:59 Dustin Lance Black for MILK, as expected. Good script, not better than WALL-E or In Bruges, though. Oh well, 2/2.

9:00 Good speech, Dustin. Why are they jumping to Adapted Screenplay already? To cut down runtime? Sure, why not.

9:03 The Slumdog clip gives me chills. Love it. Also, Simon Beaufoy, of course wins. Amazing screenplay. 3/3.

9:04 Jennifer Aniston and Jack Black? I'm going to hate whatever this is. Both of them suck. Looks like Animated Feature, though. Looooooooooove WALL-E.

9:09 Yay WALL-E! Though, Jen Aniston's attempt to say it like the character was just AWFUL. 4/4. Andrew Stanton owns.

9:11 Ugh, they're back. Animated Short: wtf is this movie that won. I'm not going to judge cause I didn't see it, but better than Presto? Doubt it. 4/5.

9:19 Art Direction. Uh oh, I'm nervous. Honestly, any of these could win.... 5 great nominees................ but Benjamin Button wins. Which means I win, at 5/6. Solid.

9:21 Stop stuttering, Daniel Craig. This must be costumes. Another strong category. The Duchess wins. God, I'm good. 6/7.

9:25 God, still on Daniel Craig and Sarah Jessica Parker? Shit. Well, now it's makeup. Again, a strong category. The Dark Knight should not win though. Which is true, because Benjamin Button won. I'm on fire! 7/8.

9:27 This kid who played Edward in Twilight looks like he's on drugs. Does he have ADD or what?

9:30 Best romance of 2008: Obviously WALL-E and EVE. I really want to watch Revolutionary Road again.

9:35 Ben Stiller is not funny. At all. Please, Natalie Portman, save us. Cinematography. Slumdog Millionaire wins! Yay! 8/9. And not just 'Yay' cause I'm dominating, but because the film totally deserved it.

9:40 GOD DAMN, Jessica Biel is hot.

9:45 James Franco in this comedy tribute, infinitely funnier than Seth Rogen.

9:48 Live Action Short... Janusz Kaminski, pretty hilarious. Uh, I predicted Toyland, but... Oh, ok, just kidding, that one did win. I rule? Yes, I rule. 9/10.

9:54 What is this musical? Good concept but it is failing pretty terribly. Hugh Jackman should quit singing, IMO.

10:05 Great Supporting Actor clip. Love it. Some really great winners over the years.

10:05 I'm already feeling the sadness that Heath Ledger isn't alive to see this.

10:09 Heath Ledger wins, naturally. 10/11. I don't think this was a sentimental win, in the sense of sympathy votes. It was honestly the best in the category.

10:14 Looks like Documentary categories coming up. Uh oh. I wish I had seen more of the nominees, honestly.

10:17 Bill Maher, not a great presenter. Plugging his own film. Sad. Oh well, Man on Wire won. Not shocking. 11/12.

10:19 Short films ruining my life. Let's see.... God damnit, missed this one, too. Why do these shorts always get me? 11/13.

10:27 Love Will Smith. Terrible jokes but he still delivers. Charisma. Yes.

10:29 Visual effects. Benjamin Button has this in the bag. Or it should. If not, something is F-ed..... Yeah, Benjamin Button won. 12/14. Good pick, AMPAS.

10:30 The sound awards are coming up, and I'm gonna falter here. Watch. I'm trying to beat the crowd on these.

10:32 OMG I love WALL-E. But I predicted The Dark Knight.... And The Dark Knight wins. 13/15. I rock?

10:33 Sound mixing, I have Slumdog. Another tough one. These are hard to judge. JUST KIDDING. I'm not sharing my formula on this one. I'm awesome. This is also an AMAZING win for such a great film, and it looks like Slumdog is unstoppable. 14/16.

10:36 Editing. What a great category. I think if I was in film and not a screenwriter, I'd like to be an editor. Slumdog Millionaire again, not surprisingly. Again, so deserved. 15/17. How many awards is Will Smith going to present?

10:38 I love how excited Danny Boyle looks for all of his crew winning. It's great.

10:43 Humanitarian award? Cool. Wake me up when it's over. Best part of this is the WALL-E score in the background. 'Define Dancing' is the best melody from WALL-E. Am I a nerd? Or a fanboy?

10:52 I love a good score for a movie. Shame all of these can't win. I wonder what they will play from Slumdog. Hopefully not O...Saya or Jai Ho (though they are both great). Hopefully Mausam & Escape, or Aaj Ki Raat. Yay, Define Dancing from WALL-E! Ok, Dreams on Fire from Slumdog. Not bad. Though it was only about 15 seconds. If that.

10:55 I love Alicia Keys. She should present every award. Mainly because she's great to look at.

10:56 YES! Slumdog Millionaire wins score! Fantastic. 16/18.

10:58 Original score. All three of these were fantastic. Who knows. YES! Performance! Please do Jai Ho dance!

10:59 Down to Earth is a great song. I'm sort of anticipating a win for it. Maybe an upset? Looks odd with the Hindi extras, though.

11:01 Jai Ho, not near as impressive without Dev Patel and Freida Pinto dancing. I'll go back to the CD. This mix of the songs is terrible, IMO.

11:03 Jai Ho! Winner! Love Slumdog Millionaire. 17/19.

11:07 Freida Pinto presenting! This show just got a lot better.

11:09 Foreign Language always has a surprise. I'm pretty sure I;ll be wrong. Yup. See, wtf? No one was predicting that, everyone was saying Waltz with Bashir, or The Class. Owned? Yes, I got owned. 17/20. Damnit Freida.

11:12 I hate Queen Latifah. GTFO. I'm all about remembering people, but GTFO of the stage. Oh God, she's singing now? Seriously?

11:20 Hate Reese Witherspoon. Learn to count. There are four awards left, and three people. Not one.

11:22 David Fincher looks pissed and bored. Probably because Danny Boyle cleans up this category easily. Well deserved. Love it. 18/21.

11:24 Great speech, Danny Boyle.

11:27 Wow, the 5 women presenting Best Actress are all amazing. Great ensemble. Is Shirley Maclaine wearing pants? Wow, Marion Cotillard is hot.

11:30 Kate Winslet, nominated for the wrong movie. Oh well. Sup, Halle Berry.

11:32 You know, if we cut out acting awards and all the praise for them, the show would be half as long. Again, entertaining, but let's just get to the award.

11:33 Kate Winslet proves if you get naked and play in a Holocaust film, you win. Not that she didn't deserve it. I love her. 19/22.

11:37 Kate Winslet is cute.

11:38 Best Actor: Infinitely more interesting. This clip is amazing. I'm going to miss this category.

11:39 Adrian Brody needs a haircut. No Daniel Day-Lewis?

11:45 YES! SEAN PENN! Thank God. Great victory. For me and Penn, obviously. 20/23. God, I'm so glad he won. So, so deserved.

11:48 Great speech Sean Penn. I guess it helps when you're not wasted (like last time).

11:50 Love these tributes. But how bad was Frost/Nixon?

11:51 Slumdog Millionaire: Best film of the year. The Reader--overrated.

11:54 Slumdog Millionaire Best Picture! Amazing. 21/24. I rule.

Great show. I'll update in a bit with more thoughts.

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Some Pre-Oscar Blabber

First off, I know these won't happen, but they would be pretty sweet upsets:

Meryl Streep, or Anne Hathaway, for Lead Actress.
Amy Adams, or Marisa Tomei, for Supporting Actress (would make me happy).
Martin McDonagh for Original Screenplay (In Bruges). Or, WALL-E.
WALL-E for Score.

With that said, Yahoo! has started posting arrival photos, and here are some good ones.



Freida Pinto is the winner, for sure.

Tim Gunn is hosting the Red Carpet? Amazing!



Josh Brolin and Diane Lane, who is the hottest 45 year-old woman on the planet.



Meryl Streep, always the best. Out of focus: her hot daughter. She's to the left in the background. I'll try to find a better picture.



If Freida Pinto is the winner, Penelope Cruz is runner-up. Gorgeous.



Penelope Cruz and Marion Cotillard. "Which one do you want?" "Well, I've always had a thing for French girls...." "Good, cause I'll take anything."

I'll update more later.

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Bump: Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are tomorrow, and as such, I'm re-posting my predictions. The full list is here, with some explanations. This year I'm playing it fairly safe. Next year I may play a bit riskier, but I think this will be a Year of the General Consensus.

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Kate Winslet
Sup. Actor: Heath Ledger
Sup. Actress: Penelope Cruz
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: Benjamin Button
Original Score: A.R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire
Animated Feature: WALL-E
Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire
Costumes: The Duchess
Doc. Feature: Man on Wire
Visual Effects: Benjamin Button
Makeup: Benjamin Button
Live Short: Spielzeugland
Doc. Short: The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
Animated Short: Presto

Last year I got 15 out of 24, which is embarrassing. This year I'll be surprised if I hit less than 18. Very surprised. We'll see!

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2009 Oscar Predictions

This was a decent year for movies. I'm still bitter about the overall nominees, but there are some gems among them. I've never really hit a grand slam with Oscar predictions because I let my personal judgment overrule what I know is the front runner, but... oh well.

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire, because not only is it the best film from the nominees, but it has won every single award up until this point.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle, for the same reasons: Not only was the film great, but he has won all of the major awards so far.

Best Actor:
Sean Penn for Milk, for a couple reasons. First, Milk won't win anything else besides Screenplay, and they will want to award it elsewhere. Also, he won the SAG, which has been fairly consistent in the last few years. Before that, when an actor lost the SAG and won the Oscar, it was to a widely seen performance that was over-the-top (Johnny Depp in 'Pirates,' for example). Here, the winner should be Mickey Rourke, but I need to accept that it won't happen. The only thing going against Sean Penn is that he won a leading Oscar in 2003, but I think that's long enough to not overpower the other factors.

Best Actress:
Kate Winslet for The Reader. She should have been nominated for Revolutionary Road, which was a better film in every single aspect, but if you're a woman in Hollywood and you strip, they kind of have to nominate you... and usually give you the Oscar (Halle Berry, for example). Kate is overdue for a win and in a film dealing with the Holocaust that is a Best Picture nominee. She will win.

Best Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight. Is anyone going to argue this one?

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. This is undoubtedly the hardest of the 'big' categories to predict. If I had my way, Amy Adams would win for Doubt, but if anyone wins it will be Viola Davis for a overpraised performance. More than likely, though, the votes will split. Marisa Tomei should win, but she already has an Oscar (granted, from a long time ago), so I'm going to stick with Penelope. She was nominated in 2007, clearly the most loved part about Volver, but no one was beating Helen Mirren. But here we have a beautiful, non-previous winner in a Woody Allen film, in a strong performance, who isn't white. Oscar loves voting for those kinds of people. She gets my vote.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire, because that is by far the best script of the year.

Best Original Screenplay:
Dustin Lance Black for Milk. It won the WGA and is a strong script, so it will win. However, I think WALL-E and In Bruges were both better scripts (and films), but we won't get into that here.

More after the cut....

Best Editing:
Slumdog Millionaire, because, again, it deserves it. But the film also has 'flashy' editing, which voters like, and the film is superbly paced. I may change this a week or so from now after the ACE Eddies, but probably not.

Best Cinematography:
Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire. This is a tough call, honestly, but this year I'm planning on a strong sweep from Slumdog.

Best Art Direction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, because it makes sense to me.

Best Original Score:
A. R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire. Thomas Newman should win for WALL-E, but Slumdog is so loved it will take it. Well, and it's a great score. I'm actually listening to it right now. I'm seriously second-guessing my choice here, so if I'm wrong don't be surprised.

Best Original Song:
Jai Ho, but I'm beating myself up about this one. Part of me thinks Slumdog will split its own votes, plus Down to Earth is a great song. However, Jai Ho has a great dance number to it at the end of Slumdog that people are bound to have seen, so I'm going with it. Why not?

Best Animated Feature:
WALL-E, done.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Waltz with Bashir

Best Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight

Best Sound Mixing:
Slumdog Millionaire, though WALL-E would be nice.

Best Costume Design:
The Duchess

Best Documentary Feature:
Man on Wire, which was good but I didn't like it too much.

Best Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Makeup:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, though don't be shocked if Hellboy 2 upsets.

Best Live Action Short:
Spielzeugland (shot in the dark)

Best Documentary Short:
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306 (shot in the dark)

Best Animated Short:
Presto

And there they are!

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Best Song: A Tough Decision

I've been pretty supportive so far of the Peter Gabriel song 'Down to Earth' from WALL-E as the best song in a film this year. However, I really like the song from the end of Slumdog Millionaire, 'Jai Ho.' Especially with the awesome dance number that comes with it. Here's a sweet video recently released. Note: There may be minor spoilers if you haven't seen the film.



P.S. Isn't Freida Pinto freakin' gorgeous?

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Worst Oscar Noms Ever

After two great years with multiple potential winners, I knew it had to come to an end.

Here are the Best Picture 5:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

You can see the full list here (don't feel like copy/pasting).

I'm glad The Dark Knight did not get nominated, but this is a horrible list. The only film that deserves to be on there is Slumdog Millionaire. The academy's taste is bland for the ordinary, bandwagon choices. I was prepared for all of these, though, except for The Reader, which, while decent, is complete trash compared to the dozen other great movies from this year that are much more deserving.

Revolutionary Road got shut out, The Wrestler got minimal nods, and I am very displeased. This will go down as 'one of those years,' in which the AMPAS messed up. They didn't even nominate Synecdoche, New York for Original Screenplay.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button was a strong film visually, but its storytelling was overall weak. I'm glad David Fincher got a long overdue Best Director nomination, but Ben Button getting 13 nominations total? Sad.

Just when people get hope that the Academy may think differently -- delusions that maybe a 'comic book movie' or an 'animated movie' may break Best Picture, we're reminded that they are, more often than not, old and boring. They did throw the movie-going public a surprise, but what was it? Nominating a film about the Holocaust. Way to go back to a stereotype.

With all this said, I am 100% hoping Slumdog Millionaire wins every category it is in, because not only is it one of the top three films of the year, it is easily the best out of any of the films nominated.

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If I Could Pick the Oscar Nominees....

I hate predicting Oscar nominees. That means I have to get five things right in each category. What a joke. And I hate when people list their five, and then have an 'alternate' and a 'potential upset' and a 'dark horse.' What the hell is that? Picking eight choices? Such a cop out.

Now, note, I still have a couple movies to see from this year. I have, however, seen most of the notable films, so this is a close-to-complete list. Note: These will all be in order of preference.

Also, note, that these are highly chimerical and unlikely at best.

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Revolutionary Road
The Wrestler
In Bruges

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn, Milk
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Best Actress
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
I have not seen enough great actress performances, so Kate Winslet wins by default

Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt (bandwagon pick)

Supporting Actress
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristin Barcelona
Frieda Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Original Screenplay
Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York
Robert D. Siegal, The Wrestler
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby, Art Marcum, Matt Holloway, Iron Man
...anything besides The Dark Knight

Best Editing
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WALL-E
Revolutionary Road
Frost/Nixon

Best Cinematography
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road
Harry Savides, Milk
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

Not gonna bother with the rest, other than WALL-E for animated feature, obviously.

We'll see tomorrow!

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A Thing About 'Best Original Score'

It's really interesting to see how the Oscar goes for Best Original Score. From what I generally gather among avid movie-watchers who really know about music, the movie that has a better score rarely wins. I'm going to use the two most recent winners to prove some points.

My theory is this: Quality of the music is obviously very important, and account for maybe 80-85%, whereas how the score plays into the movie is the remaining 15-20%.

This year the Oscar went to Atonement composer Dario Marianelli. Word around the campfire is that both the Ratatouille and 3:10 to Yuma scores were better. Maybe -- I personally prefer Atonement's. But what makes the Atonement score so much better is how it ties to the movie -- the clacks of the typewriter in tempo, coming and going. The recurring themes and how, just listening to the score, I can imagine the scenes in my head so that I don't have to watch the movie again. The others, not so much.

The previous year Gustavo Santaolalla won for Babel. That time I feel the win was a joke. Here, it enhances the movie's feel, but composition-wise, left much to be desired. Personally, I'm shocked Pan's Labyrinth didn't win, and that's still one of my favorites today. Notes on a Scandal also had a great score, as did The Queen.

There is a very interesting similarity here, though.

Atonement - 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. One win - Best Score.
Babel - 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. One win - Best Score.

Hmm...

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What a GREAT Oscar ceremony this year. Few things could have gone better.

Number one highlight of the night was Marion Cotillard winning Best Actress. Sure, this might not seem so important to some, but she was a long shot almost all season, and I'm so happy for her. She was so genuinely shocked and so completely deserved it.



And also, No Country for Old Men winning Picture/Directors/Writing is fantastic.

Time to do a tally. Total I had... 15 for 24. Ouch. But no worries since mostly what I missed were categories I blindly guessed in (literally, random picks). I had 7/8 on the 'big eight' (Pic/Director/writing categories/acting categories), and for what I claimed to know, I hit 12/15, which is a very good percentage. Actually, all I really missed were costumes, set design, and supporting actress. Yay, I still think I can hold my title as an 'Oscar pundit.' Or, as much as one can be.

A full list of winners can be found here.

And so the whole process starts over again.

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About 75 minutes until the Oscars start. Here is a quick list of my predictions, which will either be amazing or awful. I'm leaving the explanations at the door -- so I know some of these are long shots but hey, I stand by my choices.

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody - Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Best Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Best Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Best Costume Design: La Vie en Rose
Best Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum (note: if NCfOM wins this it wins Best Picture easily)
Original Song: Falling Slowly
Original Score: Atonement
Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
Sound: No Country for Old Men
Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean (yes I'm picking against the general consensus of Transformers)
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Animated Short: Peter and the Wolf
Live Action Short: The Tonto Woman
Documentary Short: La Corona
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight

---

If this happens, I will be a happy man.

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All right, just linking to two posts on the collaborative blog.

First I have my fairly extensive Oscar predictions. Check that shiznit out.

Also, a post on the last week of Big Brother. Check that out, too.

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It is now just under two weeks until the Oscars, and the only really significant award left is the ACE Eddie Awards. Editing is pretty important, but nonetheless, here are some predictions.

It is very hard to separate what I think is statistically the best bet from what I want to win. Some people make up lists with their 'prediction,' their 'alternate,' and their 'spoiler.' What in the hell kind of list is that? Even if you shot in the dark you still have a 3/5 chance. If I had three guesses per category I'd never be wrong.

As of right now I'm going to do a small list of the 'smart money' bet, and the 'if I had a vote.' That's two, yes, but before the ceremony I will man up and make one official prediction for every category, even small stuff like Live Action Short. But for now -- opinions.

Best Picture

All smart money here would go on No Country for Old Men. It has won the DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, and countless critics' awards. It has the second highest box office by a decent margin (about $10 million ahead of Michael Clayton, though about $60 behind Juno). It has 8 nominations, tied for the most. Honestly, anything else winning here would be an 'upset.' I enjoyed four of the five nominees, but NCfOM should be the winner.

Best Director

Joel and Ethan Coen for NCfOM should win here. They are the smart bet, since they won the DGA, and that almost never counteracts the Oscar. It is probably the best precursor out of them all. However, I wouldn't mind seeing Julian Schnabel win for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis wins. There is no close second and no spoiler here. Which is kind of interesting since there were some other great performances this year.

Best Actress

This gets interesting, and one of the toughest to call. Julie Christie is the favorite, with so many awards so far this season; however, Marion Cotillard has my vote. I liked Away From Her, but La Vie en Rose was a better film, and I think Cotillard deserves this Oscar. Oddly enough, though, they may split the vote and make way for Ellen Page, who I'm not predicting, but her character is certainly lovable and she is in a Best Picture nominee that had huge box office success. There could be a spoiler here.

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem wins, and again, anyone else winning would be both a crime and extreme upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Almost more interesting than Lead Actress. There almost is no favorite here, with each nominee having pros and cons. Ruby Dee won the SAG, but has almost no screen time, her performance was mediocre, and is not in a Best Picture nominee -- but she gets the old lady sympathy vote. Cate Blanchett would win here for sure, just like in Notes on a Scandal, if she hadn't won for The Aviator a few years ago. However, she is my favorite, and prediction. Tilda Swinton has lots of word of mouth, and may be Michael Clayton's consolation prize. I dislike all things Michael Clayton, but wouldn't mind too much if she took it. Amy Ryan had early buzz but it has faded, and Saoirse Ronan, while delivering a fantastic performance, will be neglected because she is so young. Shame.

Best Original Screenplay

Say what you want, but the screenplay for Juno is well constructed. It has snappy dialogue, yes, but also the plot mechanics and flow of scenes is top notch, and it deserves to win. And it is the smart bet. Though, I'd love to see Ratatouille take this, because simply a Best Animated Feature Oscar is not enough for this movie.

Best Adapted Screenplay

This is where Joel and Ethan Coen may trip up, though they are still the frontrunners, with a WGA and Golden Globe win, among other things. Paul Thomas Anderson may spoil here for There Will Be Blood, but my personal choice is Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The Coens already have a writing Oscar, but then again, Harwood has one as well (The Pianist). I think Diving Bell is brilliant, though, and should be awarded either here or in Directing.

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Those are the 'Big Eight' in a nutshell. Some of the more exciting races will be editing and cinematography, but I will write about those later.

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Sad to say the only category I picked 5 for 5 on (without alternates) was Supporting Actress. Shame. Either way, here are some opinions on Oscar nominations.

Excited for/surprised/etc:
Atonement for Best Picture (hoped for/didn't think would happen)
Viggo for Best Actor (great call on nom/didn't think would happen)
Brad Bird for Ratatouille screenplay (I forgot about this for some reason -- great nom)
Sarah Polley for adapted screenplay (forgot about this one too -- I fail)
Lack of Simpsons Movie in animated feature
Saoirse Ronan nomination

Sad/disappointed in/etc:
Michael Clayton getting nominated for, well, anything (Best Pic/director included)
Diving Bell and the Butterfly missing Best Picture (wtf is this?)
Lack of any Zodiac representation

You know what the funny thing is, that while I missed a few key predictions, I'm actually happy overall. For example, I forgot Ratatouille in screenplay, but it's totally deserving. Also, I was predicting Angelina Jolie because of buzz, but she definitely shouldn't have gotten nominated.

Now, I have a formula...

I will not reveal the formula yet, but STATISTICALLY SPEAKING the winner for best picture should be... No Country For Old Men.

The only potential problem with this is the excessive violence, but last year 'The Departed' won. But then again, would two violent movies win in a row? Who knows. But, for right now the statistical favorite, as well as my favorite, is NCFOM. Calling that shit now.

But.... to be honest, for history sake, I would be happy with 4 of the 5 nominees. There Will Be Blood was a very good movie, Juno is extremely enjoyable, Atonement was heartbreakingly beautiful, and No Country For Old Men is perfect. The only winner I would be pissed about it Michael Clayton. What does this mean? Great year for movies.

Only thing that could make this year more perfect would be Julian Schnabel winning best director and Marion Cotillard winning Best Actress. Two uphill battles, but they both have globe wins, so we will see. Yay for cheering for the non-frontrunners!

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I don't normally do this, but I am bored. Here are my predictions for Oscar nominations, which come out Tuesday. Well, these will also reflect movies I 'hope' have a chance, so... yeah.

* indicates a lock for a nomination

Best Picture
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*
Juno
No Country For Old Men*
There Will Be Blood*
alternate: Michael Clayton

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson*
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen*
Sean Penn
Julian Schnabel*
Joe Wright
alternate: Sidney Lumet (please please please)

Best Lead Actor
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)*
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)*
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
alternate: James McAvoy (Atonement)

Best Lead Actress
Julie Christie (Away From Her)*
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)*
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)*
alternate: Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James...)*
Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men)*
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
Max Von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
alternate: Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)*
Kelly MacDonald (No Country For Old Men)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)*
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
alternate: Ruby Dee (American Gangster)

Original Screenplay
Brad Bird (Ratatouille)*
Diablo Cody (Juno)*
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)*
Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)
alternate: Kelly Masterson (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

Adapted Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)*
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men)*
Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)*
James Vanderbilt (Zodiac)
alternate: Sean Penn (Into the Wild)

Cinematography
Roger Deakins (The Assassination of Jesse James...)
Roger Deakins (No Country For Old Men)
Robert Elswit (There Will Be Blood)*
Janusz Kaminsk (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)*
Seamus McGarvey (Atonement)
alternate: Eric Gautier (Into the Wild)

Editing
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - aka Roderick Jaynes (No Country For Old Men)*
John Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Tatiana S. Riegel and Dylan Tichenor (There Will Be Blood)*
Christopher Rouse (The Bourne Ultimatum)
Paul Tothill (Atonement)
alternate: Jay Cassidy (Into the Wild)

All right, so these are a combination of my hopefuls and what I think will happen. If my main five get nominated for all the categories I'd be very happy -- but then again, I would have a harder time choosing winners. Oh well, come Tuesday we'll see how close I was for the big categories.

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So I just put in Roman Holiday for my nightly movie viewing. As I was watching the opening credits, I caught that it says, "and introducing Audrey Hepburn."

Now I know all the stories about this, that it was her first role, that she won an Oscar for this movie, that Gregory Peck called it, etc. etc. etc.

The point I'm trying to make is that now, almost 55 years later, I'm watching this movie, and while RH was her first real role, Audrey Hepburn has long since won her Oscar, played out her career, died, and become pretty much legendary. And this is where it started.

I think that's one reason why I like watching old movies so much, is because if you pay enough attention and put it together right, it's just like watching history.

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I'm sitting here watching Julius Caesar, which has Marlon Brando, and is directed by Joe Mankiewicz. It's pretty much word-for-word with the play, which is great, but since I've read it a few times, I'm only half-watching. Hence, a post.

I rewatched Traffic about a week ago. I still don't know which I think is a better movie, Traffic or Gladiator. Both are fantastic, but as we know Gladiator won Best Picture. Traffic won Director, writing, editing, and supporting actor--four huge awards. Gladiator had Lead Actor, costumes, sound, and visual effects (and best picture). I don't get the Academy sometimes (note: all the time). Maybe it's because Drugs (capital D) is a touchy subject matter, and they didn't want a movie about unspeakable activities engraved as a Best Picture (hey, Brokeback Mountain). Gladiator was a much more 'epic' movie, in the sense of crowd-pleasing. It did have huge box office appeal, Gladiator with 187 million domestic, Traffic with 124 (which still isn't bad). I've continually thought Traffic was a slightly better movie, but that's a very, very hard call.

But my original intent of posting was because I recently watched Woody Allen's movie, Sleeper.

Sleeper was released in 1973, which was just after Woody Allen's debut film era (Bananas; Play It Again, Sam; and others), and just before he hit it real big (Annie Hall; Manhattan). He eventually fine tunes a style all his own, but where he draws his inspiration is distinct. On the one hand, there's numerous moments of Marx Brothers- and Charlie Chaplin-like comedy: In the future, giant fruits and vegetables are grown, and while being chased, Allen and his pursuer slip over and over on a giant banana peel. However, Allen has, in almost every movie, used sex as a strong comedic element--not with people having it, but with what revolves around it, and what its importance is to people. When Allen's character finds out his brain will be reprogrammed, he says, "My brain? Why, that's my second favorite organ." Or how there's a machine that allows humans to climax almost instantly, then go about their day. Woody also has typical Freudian jokes, such as, (to put this in context, he was frozen, and wakes up 200 years later) "I haven't seen my analyst in 200 years. He was a strict Freudian. If I'd been going all this time, I'd probably almost be cured by now." Though it's a work of fiction, his charaters seem to always have a semi-autobiographical quality, since Allen has been seeing psychiatrists for many years--all Freudian. The scenes without Allen cracking jokes seem to lag behind the rest. If I want to watch slapstick stories with little dialogue, I'll pop on a Chaplin flick, or anything early Marx Brothers. Allen does a decent job, but his characters' personalities outshine their actions. I'm glad he stayed away from this style after this flick. It was entertaining, but far from his best.

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Ok I know I said I'd be done with Oscar stuff for a long while, but I was thinking about this the other day, and I feel like writing a little bit before I watch 'About a Boy' and go to sleep.

For the 2006 Oscars, the original screenplay catagory, the nominees were:
Crash (winner)
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Match Point
Squid and the Whale, the
Syriana

I recall saying last year (while the race was on) that Crash winning O-Screenplay was a 'gimme.' In hindsight, I would rank these movies as follows:
Match Point
Squid and the Whale, the
Crash
Syriana
Good Night, and Good Luck.

First off, we can knock out Syriana because Stephen Gaghan won in 2001 (for a very well-deserved Traffic), and while that wasn't too recently, it's recent enough for a movie that revolves around a lot of similar themes to win. Plus, I didn't think Syriana was that hot. We can also kick GN&GL because, while that was a great movie, its screenplay wasn't one of its strongest points.

Why did Crash win? Because it was a movie that 'said something' about racism, and it had decent (and undeserved, but let's not go there) Best Picture potential. No doubt Crash was a well-crafted movie, but its writing was simply a string of two-dimensional characters (with the exception of maybe one) threaded together in a way I've seen in plenty of my undergraduate fiction classes. It didn't take any risks, and the fact that is jumped around so much allowed it to avoid any legitimate character depth. However, I will give it the 'grammatically (editorially?) correct' award to it, in the sense that there are no glaring flaws in the screenplay's consistency.

The Squid and the Whale was a fantastic little picture by Noah Baumbach that dealt with divorce and maturity and dealing with puberty. I think I'm a little biased since I'm an English major and there's lots of literature jokes throughout the movie. While a few portions of the movie were not as developed as the rest (I watched it like a year ago, so forgive my lack of examples), at least all the characters had their own struggles, both internal and external. Dealing with a small group of people, and developing them well, is always a much harder task than having a cast of sixty people and hoping they make up for each others' inadequacies. Which leads me to my next point:

Woody Allen should have won his fourth Oscar. I will admit it... I am a Woody Allen fan. And I know he really doesn't care about the Oscars. He didn't even know he won for Annie Hall until he read it in the paper the next morning. But he hasn't won in nearly 20 years, so surely he can win again soon. Anyway--Match Point is a drastic turn for Allen, leaving his faithful New York. This also proves he's a multi-talented filmmaker who can do both drama and comedy, and do them well. I'm going to be overly vague because this is not a movie to spoil. The story shows how everyone has deep flaws and desires they don't want anyone to find out, and how far people will go to get what they want. There are so many lines of quick wit, as well as genius turns in the plot that are impossible to guess, no matter how hard you try, or how 'good' you think you are. And Allen, of course, gets away with all of it, making every character completely believable in this struggle amongst the British upper class, where people sometimes assume life is just too easy. Again, with the small cast of characters, the audience gets a strange sense of familiarity right away, where you think you know what someone will do next, and when they go the other way it's still not surprising. Often on a set, Allen will improvise a lot, saying something to his actors like, "Use the word 'mellon' in some kind of sentence, because I have a joke to tell." I don't know how this movie was filmed, but it seems fairly obvious Match Point was scripted every word of the way, and with that kind of accuracy that is why it was the best original screenplay for 2006 (or, of 2005. Whichever you prefer).

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