2009 Oscar Predictions

This was a decent year for movies. I'm still bitter about the overall nominees, but there are some gems among them. I've never really hit a grand slam with Oscar predictions because I let my personal judgment overrule what I know is the front runner, but... oh well.

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire, because not only is it the best film from the nominees, but it has won every single award up until this point.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle, for the same reasons: Not only was the film great, but he has won all of the major awards so far.

Best Actor:
Sean Penn for Milk, for a couple reasons. First, Milk won't win anything else besides Screenplay, and they will want to award it elsewhere. Also, he won the SAG, which has been fairly consistent in the last few years. Before that, when an actor lost the SAG and won the Oscar, it was to a widely seen performance that was over-the-top (Johnny Depp in 'Pirates,' for example). Here, the winner should be Mickey Rourke, but I need to accept that it won't happen. The only thing going against Sean Penn is that he won a leading Oscar in 2003, but I think that's long enough to not overpower the other factors.

Best Actress:
Kate Winslet for The Reader. She should have been nominated for Revolutionary Road, which was a better film in every single aspect, but if you're a woman in Hollywood and you strip, they kind of have to nominate you... and usually give you the Oscar (Halle Berry, for example). Kate is overdue for a win and in a film dealing with the Holocaust that is a Best Picture nominee. She will win.

Best Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight. Is anyone going to argue this one?

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. This is undoubtedly the hardest of the 'big' categories to predict. If I had my way, Amy Adams would win for Doubt, but if anyone wins it will be Viola Davis for a overpraised performance. More than likely, though, the votes will split. Marisa Tomei should win, but she already has an Oscar (granted, from a long time ago), so I'm going to stick with Penelope. She was nominated in 2007, clearly the most loved part about Volver, but no one was beating Helen Mirren. But here we have a beautiful, non-previous winner in a Woody Allen film, in a strong performance, who isn't white. Oscar loves voting for those kinds of people. She gets my vote.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire, because that is by far the best script of the year.

Best Original Screenplay:
Dustin Lance Black for Milk. It won the WGA and is a strong script, so it will win. However, I think WALL-E and In Bruges were both better scripts (and films), but we won't get into that here.

More after the cut....

Best Editing:
Slumdog Millionaire, because, again, it deserves it. But the film also has 'flashy' editing, which voters like, and the film is superbly paced. I may change this a week or so from now after the ACE Eddies, but probably not.

Best Cinematography:
Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire. This is a tough call, honestly, but this year I'm planning on a strong sweep from Slumdog.

Best Art Direction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, because it makes sense to me.

Best Original Score:
A. R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire. Thomas Newman should win for WALL-E, but Slumdog is so loved it will take it. Well, and it's a great score. I'm actually listening to it right now. I'm seriously second-guessing my choice here, so if I'm wrong don't be surprised.

Best Original Song:
Jai Ho, but I'm beating myself up about this one. Part of me thinks Slumdog will split its own votes, plus Down to Earth is a great song. However, Jai Ho has a great dance number to it at the end of Slumdog that people are bound to have seen, so I'm going with it. Why not?

Best Animated Feature:
WALL-E, done.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Waltz with Bashir

Best Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight

Best Sound Mixing:
Slumdog Millionaire, though WALL-E would be nice.

Best Costume Design:
The Duchess

Best Documentary Feature:
Man on Wire, which was good but I didn't like it too much.

Best Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Makeup:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, though don't be shocked if Hellboy 2 upsets.

Best Live Action Short:
Spielzeugland (shot in the dark)

Best Documentary Short:
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306 (shot in the dark)

Best Animated Short:
Presto

And there they are!