Here's a few statistics:

Since 1990, no film from the bottom two of the five nominated best pictures, in Box Office numbers, has won. The only 3rd place one was American Beauty.

There has only been (I think) 3 instances where a film has won without a Best Director nomination, the last one being in 1989 for Driving Miss Daisy.

There has NEVER been two consecutive years with a Director/Picture split, and since there was one last year...

So far, DOMESTIC BO:

The Departed: $121 million
Little Miss Sunshine: $59 million
The Queen: $36 million
Babel: $24 million
Letters from Iwo Jima: $2 million

Also, Departed has about $255 overseas.

So, theoretically it's a 'Departed' vs. 'The Queen' race. I like it.