Anyone who knows me personally knows I love the Oscars, even if it shits on me (and pretty much everyone) repeatedly. With that said, I think it's safe to assume that I watch the Oscars more closely than anyone who would be reading this (only one possible exception comes to mind), so I'll make a nice, long post for those who want to seem as 'in the know' as a person can be at this point.

First, let's remember that it is still very early in the season. Tides can change like that (snaps fingers). Also, keep in mind that the best film doesn't always win, but it's often the film that is best campaigned. But then again, that doesn't explain why 'Dreamgirls' didn't even get a director of best picture nomination. So what does all this mean? Basically - nothing is for sure, and while statistics may help in anaylzing things here and there, and sometimes a performance or movie may be the best, that doesn't always result in the little gold statue. Hell, just last year, 'Brokeback Mountain' was considered the huge frontrunner, won an amazing number of awards, including the best director Oscar, and everyone thought it was a sure thing until Jack said, "Crash."

I'm going to try not to make predictions right now (more detailed post in about a month), but it's hard not to mention the favorites. So, without further ado:

Best Picture: Babel, The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen

The big surprise here is no 'Dreamgirls.' This proves that no one should ever underestimate the amount of love the AMPAS has for Clint Eastwood. Also, every movie in this catagory has a crutch. 'Babel' is too international, too bland (that's my opinion), under $20 million box office, and too much like 'Crash' (lots of small stories that tie together) to pull ahead. 'The Departed' is a remake from a Hong Kong movie, only has five nominations, and is also quite violent. 'Letters' is foreign, but apparently that didn't stop it from getting nominated, but also awarding another Eastwood movie two years later is very unlikely. 'Letters' also only has four nods. 'Sunshine' is too little (see what I did there?), has no director nod (this is a pretty huge deal), only four nods as well, and it's more of a indie comedy family cheesy movie than the traditional type of movie that takes Best Pic. Then, of course, 'The Queen' is a fantastic movie, but it isn't really anyone's "favorite," and also is showing some early signs of weakness (no Sup. Actor nod, as I'll explain later).

Unless there's a movie that is too huge and too good to ignore ('American Beauty' and 'Silence of the Lambs' come to mind as the only recent examples), nothing can be for sure. I really want 'The Departed' to win, and I think it can, so I'd put that as my very early prediction. And for the record, I thought 'Dreamgirls' was better than both 'Little Miss Sunshine' and 'Babel.'

Achievement in Directing: Alejandro González Iñárritu - "Babel", Martin Scorsese - "The Departed", Clint Eastwood - "Letters from Iwo Jima", Stephen Frears - "The Queen", Paul Greengrass - "United 93"

Another shocking miss for Bill Condon, the director of 'Dreamgirls.' Scorsese is the clear favorite here, but I'm sure everyone is aware of how he's been denied numerous times in the past. Eastwood winning would be very unlikely, since he won two years ago, plus that would be his third directing Oscar. González Iñárritu winning would be a joke. Greengrass and Frears both did a good job, but nothing awards worthy. Seriously, if Scorsese loses, what the fuck?

Lead Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio - "Blood Diamond", Ryan Gosling - "Half Nelson", Peter O’Toole - "Venus", Will Smith - "The Pursuit of Happyness", Forest Whitaker - "The Last King of Scotland"

A bit of a shocker that Leo was nominated for 'Blood Diamond' and not 'The Departed,' though I hear his performance was stronger in the former (but I'm skeptical, since his performance in 'The Departed' was my favorite of the year). But, unfortunately, that means there might not be as much 'Departed' love as one could hope (though there was a ton of catagory confusion, which probably screwed 'The Departed' over, but that's another post for another day). I really want to see 'Half Nelson,' and there's no way Gosling will win, but I'm glad he was nominated. Will Smith should just be happy he was nominated as well, since there were a few performances more noteworthy than his. Peter O'Toole nomination is no shock, and people are really saying that, after losing seven times prior and getting an honorary Oscar, the Academy will feel sorry for him and give him the win. I think that's a bogus argument, but who knows - he may be a real threat. Forest Whitaker has been winning everything everywhere, so he is the clear favorite going in, but he has the huge handicap of his movie not being nominated in any other catagories. Seriously, that's pretty big, but I would still almost say he's unstoppable.

Lead Actress: Penélope Cruz - "Volver", Judi Dench - "Notes on a Scandal", Helen Mirren - "The Queen", Meryl Streep - "The Devil Wears Prada", Kate Winslet - "Little Children"

These five nominees have been set for months, and Helen Mirren will win without question. The other four nominees might as well not show up (and you guys know how much I love Meryl).

Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin - "Little Miss Sunshine", Jackie Earle Haley - "Little Children", Djimon Hounsou - "Blood Diamond", Eddie Murphy - "Dreamgirls", Mark Wahlberg - "The Departed"

I'm so happy Mark Wahlberg was nominated. If 'Departed' didn't snag a nom here (either Wahlberg or Jack Nicholson) it would've been bad. Arkin being nominated instead of Michael Sheen for 'The Queen' is clearly some kind of joke, and is a pretty bad sign for the royal flick. The rest are not surprises, and Murphy is the clear favorite. I just have a hard time imaging a trailer say 'Doctor Doolittle 7, featuring Academy Award Winner Eddie Murphy.' I can see Haley pulling the upset.

Supporting Actress: Adriana Barraza - "Babel", Cate Blanchett - "Notes on a Scandal", Abigail Breslin - "Little Miss Sunshine", Jennifer Hudson - "Dreamgirls", Rinko Kikuchi - "Babel"

Jen Hudson is the natural favorite, which kind of stinks. I still say that this should be an award for acting, and if you want your singing awarded, go to the Grammys. A Rinko Kikuchi win would make me happy, and isn't totally impossible. Two 'Babel' girl nominations is (unfortunately) a good sign for that movie, but could lead to split voting. The nomination of Little Miss Sunshine herself is a great sign for the indie flick, and if she didn't get nominated, there would be no way 'Sunshine' would win best picture.

Adapted Screenplay: 'Borat,' 'Children of Men,' 'The Departed,' 'Little Children,' 'Notes on a Scandal'

If 'The Departed' loses this, I will cry. Potential, but very unlikely upset: 'Borat'

Original Screenplay: 'Babel,' 'Letters from Iwo Jima,' 'Little Miss Sunshine,' 'Pan's Labyrinth,' 'The Queen'

This one is a lot harder to call than Adapted Screenplay. I'm so happy 'Labyrinth' is getting recognition outside of the Foreign Film catagory, but I don't think it's winning this (though that'd be pretty sweet). 'Babel' winning would also be a terrible choice. 'Letters,' very unlikely. That makes this a two horse race. More will be clear once the WGA (Writer's Guild) announces the winner, but 'The Queen' won the globes, and I personally think that its screenplay is much more refined, witty, artistic, and award-worthy than 'Sunshine.'

Ok, other catagories will get a very brief mention, and I'm only going to mention catagories I actually know something about.

Animated Feature: 'Cars' is gaining momentum, 'Happy Feet' losing steam. Good!

Cinematography: 'Children of Men' vs. 'Pan's Labyrinth.' To be honest, I loved both of these movies, so I would be happy as long as one of these two won. Prediction: 'Children of Men'

Foreign Film: With a lack of Almodovar's 'Volver,' the clear winner should be 'Pan's Labyrinth.'

Original Score: Desplat nominated for 'The Queen' instead of 'The Painted Veil' is odd. Maybe this is a good sign for 'The Queen?' Either way, I've been listening to the 'Pan's Labyrinth' soundtrack for about a week now, so I'm a little biased in wanting that to win. Possible 'Babel' upset (ugh).

Original Song: Three out of the five nominees from 'Dreamgirls,' and obviously it will win for one of those. The trick is picking which one. Personally I would vote for 'Listen,' but that's just me. Even with split voting, I'm sure the winner will be one of those three.

So what the hell does all this mean? Who knows. All I can say is if you're a betting man (or girl), placing bets now on anything besides Lead Actress would be retarded. I'll try to refrain from the Oscar season monopolizing this blog, so I'll just make a post in a few weeks once it's closer to awards time. Then I'll state the 'frontrunner,' as well as who I want to win (which is the same maybe half the time). Until then, go tell this information to your friends so you can sound smart and informed.