It is now just under two weeks until the Oscars, and the only really significant award left is the ACE Eddie Awards. Editing is pretty important, but nonetheless, here are some predictions.

It is very hard to separate what I think is statistically the best bet from what I want to win. Some people make up lists with their 'prediction,' their 'alternate,' and their 'spoiler.' What in the hell kind of list is that? Even if you shot in the dark you still have a 3/5 chance. If I had three guesses per category I'd never be wrong.

As of right now I'm going to do a small list of the 'smart money' bet, and the 'if I had a vote.' That's two, yes, but before the ceremony I will man up and make one official prediction for every category, even small stuff like Live Action Short. But for now -- opinions.

Best Picture

All smart money here would go on No Country for Old Men. It has won the DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, and countless critics' awards. It has the second highest box office by a decent margin (about $10 million ahead of Michael Clayton, though about $60 behind Juno). It has 8 nominations, tied for the most. Honestly, anything else winning here would be an 'upset.' I enjoyed four of the five nominees, but NCfOM should be the winner.

Best Director

Joel and Ethan Coen for NCfOM should win here. They are the smart bet, since they won the DGA, and that almost never counteracts the Oscar. It is probably the best precursor out of them all. However, I wouldn't mind seeing Julian Schnabel win for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis wins. There is no close second and no spoiler here. Which is kind of interesting since there were some other great performances this year.

Best Actress

This gets interesting, and one of the toughest to call. Julie Christie is the favorite, with so many awards so far this season; however, Marion Cotillard has my vote. I liked Away From Her, but La Vie en Rose was a better film, and I think Cotillard deserves this Oscar. Oddly enough, though, they may split the vote and make way for Ellen Page, who I'm not predicting, but her character is certainly lovable and she is in a Best Picture nominee that had huge box office success. There could be a spoiler here.

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem wins, and again, anyone else winning would be both a crime and extreme upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Almost more interesting than Lead Actress. There almost is no favorite here, with each nominee having pros and cons. Ruby Dee won the SAG, but has almost no screen time, her performance was mediocre, and is not in a Best Picture nominee -- but she gets the old lady sympathy vote. Cate Blanchett would win here for sure, just like in Notes on a Scandal, if she hadn't won for The Aviator a few years ago. However, she is my favorite, and prediction. Tilda Swinton has lots of word of mouth, and may be Michael Clayton's consolation prize. I dislike all things Michael Clayton, but wouldn't mind too much if she took it. Amy Ryan had early buzz but it has faded, and Saoirse Ronan, while delivering a fantastic performance, will be neglected because she is so young. Shame.

Best Original Screenplay

Say what you want, but the screenplay for Juno is well constructed. It has snappy dialogue, yes, but also the plot mechanics and flow of scenes is top notch, and it deserves to win. And it is the smart bet. Though, I'd love to see Ratatouille take this, because simply a Best Animated Feature Oscar is not enough for this movie.

Best Adapted Screenplay

This is where Joel and Ethan Coen may trip up, though they are still the frontrunners, with a WGA and Golden Globe win, among other things. Paul Thomas Anderson may spoil here for There Will Be Blood, but my personal choice is Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The Coens already have a writing Oscar, but then again, Harwood has one as well (The Pianist). I think Diving Bell is brilliant, though, and should be awarded either here or in Directing.

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Those are the 'Big Eight' in a nutshell. Some of the more exciting races will be editing and cinematography, but I will write about those later.